Last week, Iranian naval ships entered the Mediterranean Sea through the Egyptian-controlled Suez Canal for the first time in over 30 years. An Iranian diplomat has called the movement “a routine visit” for training purposes. Egypt’s news agency reports that permission was granted because the ships were not carrying any weapons, or nuclear or chemical materials. Israeli officials have said this is a provocation, and that it is a power play in a time of instability in the region. Is Iran using the distraction of the Middle East protests to amp up their nuclear program?
The West has long been suspicious that Iran’s nuclear energy program is a cover for their weapons program. Tehran denies this, claiming that their nuclear research and development is for peaceful purposes only. However, Iran’s insistence on its sovereign rights to enrich uranium led to the breakdown of UN talks over swapping some of Iran’s stock-pile of low-enriched uranium for fuel designed for medical purposes, and the power plant in Bushehr, set to begin generating electricity in April, has been shutdown.
Foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi has been very casual about the removal of nuclear material from the power plant in Bushehr (it is unclear whether the mysterious computer virus that attacked Iran’s nuclear reactors in January had anything to do with the breakdown). Salehi has said that more testing at the plant is required, and that safety is their chief concern in delaying the opening of the plant.
Iran certainly has to deal with its own internal unrest. In recent days, demonstrations there have led to violent clashes with security forces, especially after the reported arrest of opposition leaders and subsequent denial by Iranian officials. Although instability in the region may allow Iran to flex its muscles, it could also embolden a resurgence of the reform movement that protested the results of the presidential election in 2009.
What does the unrest in the Middle East mean for Iran’s nuclear program? Why would Iran move nuclear fuel in a time of civil unrest? How should we interpret Iran’s naval posturing in the Mediterranean? Can demonstrations against the Iranian government lead to reform of any kind? How would a more democratic Iran fit into the international community?
